Most people find out about a new spec home the day it hits the MLS. By then, the land was bought years earlier and the frame went up in plain sight. If you want to know what the luxury market will look like in 2027 and 2028, the building permits already tell you.
So we pulled them. Our team tracked every large single-family permit filed or issued since October 2024 across the Westside, the hills, Beverly Hills, Malibu and West Hollywood: new homes valued at $1 million or more in construction, and additions or remodels at $500,000 or more. That is 1,263 properties. Here is what they say.
The pipeline at a glance
- 648 projects are under construction now. Another 302 are in plan check and 188 are approved but not yet permitted. Only 125 have finished.
- More than half are fire rebuilds. 690 of the 1,263 rebuild homes lost in January 2025, mostly in the Palisades and Malibu. Most are being rebuilt by the families who owned them, so they are homes, not inventory.
- 573 projects are not fire rebuilds. That is the true spec and big-renovation pipeline, and it is where the next wave of listings comes from.
- The money is real. Declared construction value across the projects with a reported figure tops $1.5 billion, before land.
A permit tells you what is going up. It does not tell you who is behind it or whether they would sell early. That part comes from relationships. Much of my business is off-market, and it starts with talking to owners directly, long before anything is listed.
Where the spec money moved
Beverly Hills is doing the heavy lifting
The clearest pattern in the data is the city line. Beverly Hills is its own city, so sales there are not subject to the City of Los Angeles transfer tax known as Measure ULA. Look at what got built:
- Beverly Hills has 99 non-fire new homes in the pipeline, against 147 across all the City of LA neighborhoods we tracked combined.
- Of the 34 non-fire projects with $4 million or more in declared construction value, 22 are in Beverly Hills.
- The median non-fire project in Beverly Hills carries about $1.95 million in construction value. In the City of LA, it is about $1.0 million.
- The Beverly Hills North area alone accounts for about $239 million of non-fire construction value.
Inside the City of LA, remodels are winning
In the City of LA neighborhoods, 228 of the 375 non-fire projects (61%) are additions and major remodels, not new homes. That lines up with what researchers have found. A UCLA Anderson working paper reported that renovation permits on luxury homes rose 46% after ULA took effect, as owners chose to remodel rather than sell.
That does not mean ground-up spec stopped. Brentwood ($113 million in non-fire construction value), Beverly Crest and the Post Office area ($111 million) and Bel Air ($106 million) all have serious projects underway. Builders who stay in the city just underwrite much harder.
The tax changes the math, but it does not make these neighborhoods interchangeable. Every LA micro-market is its own world, and the pool of true comps is tiny. Two homes a mile apart can sit on different ridges with different views and different buyers. What I tell builders is to price the street and the view, not just the city line.
What a builder is up against right now
The transfer tax
Per the City of LA Office of Finance, for sales closing after June 30, 2026, ULA adds 4% on sales above $5.4 million and 5.5% at $10.9 million and up, on top of the city's base 0.45% transfer tax. On a $15 million spec sale, ULA alone is $825,000. The tax is on the full price, not the profit.
On November 3, 2026, City of LA voters decide Proposition TE. It would exempt certain sales of homes damaged in the Palisades Fire by their owners at the time of the fire, through January 6, 2030. It does not change ULA for spec builders elsewhere in the city.
Money costs more
The Federal Reserve raised its target range to 3.75% to 4% on September 16, 2026. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.32% on October 22, 2026, up from 6.19% a year earlier. Spec projects run on short-term construction debt, so every extra month of carry on a two-to-three-year build hits the bottom line.
Materials and labor
Tariffs pushed metals and wood higher. Bureau of Labor Statistics producer price data for September 2026 shows steel mill products up about 28% from a year earlier and softwood lumber up about 14%. At the same time, the fire rebuild is competing for the same crews. LA County's rebuilding blueprint projected as many as 45,000 workers needed at peak across the Palisades and Eaton burn areas, during a national labor shortage.
What I tell builders: plan for the build to cost more and take longer than the spreadsheet says, and do not count on the sale price to cover the gap. In my experience, the homes that sit are the ones that came to market overpriced or were furnished cheaply to save money at the finish line. Buyers at this level notice both.
What happens to the projects under construction
Here is the timing, based on permit dates and typical build schedules. These are estimates, not promises.
Estimated finish | Non-fire projects |
|---|---|
Already complete | 51 |
Past the typical schedule | 93 |
2026 | 29 |
2027 | 140 |
2028 | 219 |
2029 and later | 41 |
2027 and 2028 are the big years
About 360 non-fire projects are on track to finish in 2027 and 2028. Many of the 2028 homes have not pulled a permit yet, so some will slip and some will never start. Still, buyers should expect a noticeably deeper bench of brand-new homes in Beverly Hills, Brentwood, Bel Air and the Post Office area over the next two years.
The 93 to watch
Another 93 non-fire projects are past where a typical schedule says they would be done. That is not proof of trouble. Hillside foundations, basements and design changes add months. But a project that is late, carrying expensive debt and facing a big transfer tax at the finish line is exactly where motivated sellers come from. Some of those homes will trade quietly, before or right after completion, and never get a full public campaign.
That is the off-market opportunity, and it is why we watch permits instead of waiting for listings. Read more in our guide to off-market homes in Los Angeles: laluxuries.com/blog/off-market-homes-los-angeles.
Here is what usually happens. A builder late in the schedule would often rather have a certain sale than more months of carry and a public price history. Say a builder is a few months from finishing and a qualified buyer comes through quietly. The buyer may get a say in final finishes and a cleaner negotiation, and the builder gets certainty. Those conversations happen through relationships, not the MLS.
Prices will get tested
New supply in a high-rate market means pricing gets honest. This year, at least one nine-figure Hollywood Hills spec home was relisted about 21% below its original ask. Buyers who know which projects are about to deliver will have leverage.
I see the same thing below nine figures. I watched a Hollywood Hills view home with a rooftop tennis court sit through cuts, from $7 million to $6.5 million for sale and from $30,000 to $25,000 a month for rent, without finding a tenant. The owners turned to short-term rentals. To me, that is a last resort. It is almost always better to get the deal done at the right price.
Five projects to watch
These five come straight from public permit records and are among the largest projects in the pipeline by declared construction value. Values cover construction only, not land or a future sale price, and finish dates are estimates.
- 801 N Camden Dr, Beverly Hills. A new two-story home of about 27,050 square feet with a habitable basement and subterranean parking, the largest square footage listed in our data. The permit was issued in May 2025 with about $8.2 million in declared construction value, and completion is estimated around mid-2028.
- 1001 N Roxbury Dr, Beverly Hills. A new home with a partial basement, under construction since its permit was issued in November 2025. At about $11.8 million in declared construction value, it is the highest of any Beverly Hills project we tracked, with completion estimated around late 2028.
- 9712 Oak Pass Rd, Beverly Crest. This permit is for a new home that is part of a larger plan in the City of LA hills above Beverly Hills: the permit describes merging and re-subdividing existing lots into 14 new lots, with 14 new single-family homes and 11 ADUs. It carries $30 million in declared construction value, the highest in our data, and is still in plan check, so completion is estimated in late 2029 or later.
- 500 N Perugia Way, Bel Air. A major remodel and addition to an existing two-story home with a basement, adding a two-car garage and a junior ADU. The permit lists about 18,600 square feet and about $14.4 million in declared construction value. It is in plan check, and completion is estimated in late 2028 or later.
- 16142 Royal Oak Rd, Encino. A new two-story home over a basement and garage, with $18 million in declared construction value, the largest Valley project in our data. It was submitted in July 2025 and is in plan check, so completion is estimated in 2030 or later.
A permit is not a promise. Plans change, and none of this tells you what an owner intends to do with the finished home. It does tell you where the next generation of trophy homes is taking shape.
What this means for you
- Buyers: the best new homes of 2027 and 2028 are framed today. Ask about them now, while the builder is still deciding how to sell. Every home and every view makes you feel something, and my job is to listen for that, not just match square footage.
- Sellers: know the pipeline near you before you price. A brand-new house two doors down changes your comps, and construction nearby can hurt you in the meantime. I have seen a home next to a party house, with construction on the same cul-de-sac, sit without a tenant for eight months. Sellers also compare their home to the wrong neighbor on a different ridge. Your home could be the trophy everyone wants, but the agent will know for sure. Before showings, I have sellers handle brush clearance, check retaining walls for leaks and replace night lighting, so the home can show within 24 hours.
- Builders and investors: the math is different on each side of the city line. Run ULA, carry and cost assumptions before you buy dirt.
- Renters: finished spec homes sometimes go up for rent while the builder waits for the right buyer.
FAQ
What is a spec home?
A spec home is built by a developer without a buyer lined up, with the plan to sell it once it is done. In LA's luxury market, that usually means a new estate in Beverly Hills, Bel Air, Brentwood or the hills.
Does the LA mansion tax apply in Beverly Hills?
No. Measure ULA applies to sales within the City of Los Angeles. Beverly Hills, Malibu and West Hollywood are separate cities. Bel Air, Brentwood, Encino, the Palisades and Beverly Crest are inside the City of LA.
When will new spec homes hit the market?
Based on permit dates, the bulk of today's non-fire pipeline is estimated to finish in 2027 and 2028, with about 140 projects in 2027 and about 219 in 2028.
Can I buy a spec home before it is finished?
Sometimes. Builders carrying expensive construction debt may sell before completion, often privately. Working with an agent who tracks the permit pipeline is how you hear about it.
See what is coming before it lists
We keep watching this pipeline. If you want to know what is being built on a street you care about, or you want a look at homes that never reach the open market, start with our off-market listings at laluxuries.com/off-market-listings. You can also explore Beverly Hills (laluxuries.com/neighborhoods/beverly-hills), Bel Air (laluxuries.com/neighborhoods/bel-air) and Brentwood (laluxuries.com/neighborhoods/brentwood), or reach out to me directly.
Jordan Pollack, LA Luxuries Estate Agency 323.238.5225 | [email protected]
Data: LADBS Open Data, City of Beverly Hills issued-permit reports, and California HCD Housing Element reports for Malibu and West Hollywood, compiled October 17, 2026. Construction values are declared permit values, not land cost or sale price. Finish dates are estimates. Malibu and West Hollywood figures cover 2024 to 2025 and include no construction values. Sources: City of LA Office of Finance; City of LA Proposition TE voter pamphlet; Federal Reserve; Freddie Mac; U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics; UCLA Anderson Review; LA County Blueprint for Rebuilding; The Real Deal.
