Valley Village

 Valley Village 3-Year Projection (2026–2028)

2026 (Forecast)

• Active Listings: ~165–175 (slightly below 2025 as inventory tightens).
• Closed Sales: ~95–105.
• Closure Rate: ~55–58% (stable absorption).
• Median Prices: List $1.50M | Sold $1.52M.
• $ per Sq.Ft.: ~$815–$825.
• Total Volume: ~$170M–$185M.
  Market stabilizes with healthy but cautious buyer activity; prices edge upward while turnover remains moderate.

2027 (Forecast)

• Active Listings: ~160–170.
• Closed Sales: ~100–110.
• Closure Rate: ~60–62%.
• Median Prices: List $1.55M | Sold $1.57M.
• $ per Sq.Ft.: ~$835–$850.
• Total Volume: ~$185M–$200M.
  Stronger buyer demand and stable interest rates bring a modest rebound in sales. Prices show consistent appreciation, supported by Valley Village’s prime location.

2028 (Forecast)

• Active Listings: ~170–180.
• Closed Sales: ~110–120.
• Closure Rate: ~62–65%.
• Median Prices: List $1.60M | Sold $1.63M.
• $ per Sq.Ft.: ~$860–$880.
• Total Volume: ~$200M–$215M.
  Momentum returns with healthier turnover. Prices steadily appreciate, and volume rebounds closer to pre-2022 levels, showing long-term growth resilience.

Projection Summary

• Sales Activity: Valley Village is expected to rebound gradually, with closure rates improving from the low-50s back into the low-60s by 2028.
• Pricing: Prices will continue a measured climb, with median sold values projected to rise ~8–10% over the 2026–2028 cycle.
• Value Density: $/Sq.Ft. is forecast to grow from ~$815 (2026) to ~$875 (2028), sustaining long-term appreciation.
• Total Volume: By 2028, sales volume should recover above $200M, though unlikely to reach the pandemic-era peak.

Bottom Line: Valley Village is entering a stabilization-to-growth phase, where demand and pricing remain strong but turnover grows more gradually. For buyers, this means less frenzy but continued appreciation. For sellers, it means steady value support with realistic expectations on timing.

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 Analysis of Valley Village (2013–2025)

1. Market Activity: Active Listings & Closed Sales

• Active Listings ranged from ~161 to 270, peaking in 2016 before trending downward post-2021.
• Closed Sales tracked listings closely, peaking in 2021 with 181 transactions — the strongest demand year in the series.
• By 2023–2025, closings fell into the 90–116 range, underscoring a slower absorption cycle.

2. Closure Rate (Absorption)

• 2013–2017: Healthy closure rates between 65–71%, reflecting strong buyer activity.
• 2018–2020: Rates cooled to the 52–60% range, showing slower but steady turnover.
• 2021: Exceptional absorption at 72.4%, a peak driven by record-low mortgage rates.
• 2023–2025: Closure rates softened to 51–56%, showing balanced but less urgent demand.

3. Pricing Trends: Median List vs. Median Sold

• 2013: Median List $787K vs. Median Sold $777K — near parity.
• 2025: Median List $1.45M vs. Median Sold $1.49M — buyers now consistently match or slightly outbid asking.
• Market Phases:
• 2013–2017: Gradual appreciation with steady alignment.
• 2018–2020: Prices climbed modestly, but remained close to list.
• 2021–2022: Acceleration — sold prices exceeded list by 4–5%, reflecting bidding wars.
• 2023–2025: Stabilization — list-to-sold gaps narrowed, showing more balanced negotiation.

4. Total Sold Volume

• 2013–2016: Ranged $108M–$183M, reflecting steady market liquidity.
• 2021: Surged to $273M, an all-time high fueled by both price and sales count.
• 2023–2025: Declined back to ~$117M–$174M, despite higher prices, due to reduced transaction volume.

5. Value Per Square Foot

• 2013: $437/Sq.Ft.
• 2017: Crossed $526/Sq.Ft.
• 2021–2022: Jumped into the $677–778/Sq.Ft. range.
• 2025: Settled at $794/Sq.Ft., nearly double 2013 levels, showing long-term resilience.

6. Sale-to-List Ratios

• Consistently strong, ranging from 99–104%.
• 2021–2022: Ratios exceeded 100%, highlighting competitive bidding.
• 2023–2025: Ratios stabilized just around 100%, showing buyers are still paying near ask, but with fewer bidding wars.

What This Means

• 2013–2017: A healthy market with steady turnover and appreciation.
• 2018–2020: Softer absorption but gradual price growth, positioning Valley Village as a stable neighborhood.
• 2021–2022: Peak market momentum — rapid appreciation, record volumes, bidding wars.
• 2023–2025: A correction in activity, but values remain elevated as limited supply and strong location fundamentals keep pricing supported.

Bottom Line

Valley Village remains a highly desirable submarket in the Valley. While the post-2021 cooldown reduced sales velocity, prices continue to show long-term appreciation and buyers remain committed to paying close to asking. Over the next cycle, expect stable-to-moderate price growth with fewer transactions, as affordability challenges weigh on turnover but limited supply underpins values.