Beverly Hills Post Office: 3-Year Market Projection
2026
- Active Listings: Likely to stay elevated (~430–450), as more homeowners test the market amidst ongoing high valuations.
- Closed Sales: Projected ~110–120, still below pre-2020 averages, reflecting cautious buyer activity.
- Median Prices: Stabilization phase. Expect list prices around $3.4M–$3.5M with solds slightly below at ~$3.2M–$3.3M.
- $/Sq.Ft.: Near $1,050–$1,100, holding close to 2025 levels as the market absorbs corrections.
- Key Factor: The Fed keeping interest rates “higher for longer” tempers speculative buying, but global ultra-wealthy buyers keep a floor under pricing.
2027
- Active Listings: Inventory moderates to ~400–420, as discouraged sellers pull back and only serious listings remain.
- Closed Sales: Modest rebound to ~130–140, signaling renewed market confidence.
- Median Prices: Modest appreciation resumes: list ~$3.6M–$3.7M, sold ~$3.4M–$3.5M.
- $/Sq.Ft.: Climbs toward $1,150–$1,200, reflecting luxury buyer demand for turnkey, renovated homes.
- Key Factor: Global economic stabilization (especially equity markets) revives luxury spending; domestic buyers return as inflation cools.
2028
- Active Listings: Remain balanced at ~380–400, as stronger absorption keeps inventory from swelling.
- Closed Sales: Pushes toward 150–160, approaching pre-pandemic levels.
- Median Prices: Market regains upward momentum. List ~$3.8M–$4.0M, sold ~$3.6M–$3.8M.
- $/Sq.Ft.: Could test $1,250–$1,300, though growth is more gradual than the 2020–2021 surge.
- Key Factor: Stabilized interest rates (possibly modest rate cuts), strong global demand for Beverly Hills as a safe-haven asset, and continued low turnover in core luxury neighborhoods sustain values.
Summary Projection
- Short-term (2026): Stabilization, with pricing flat-to-soft and sales subdued.
- Mid-term (2027): Recovery begins, driven by global capital and a return of domestic luxury buyers.
- Long-term (2028): Healthy appreciation, bringing the market back near its 2021 strength, but with more sustainable fundamentals.
Bottom Line: Beverly Hills Post Office is transitioning from a post-boom correction (2022–2025) into a stabilization and recovery phase (2026–2028). Expect fewer transactions than the pandemic peak, but solid long-term appreciation anchored by global demand for rare luxury assets.
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Analysis of Beverly Hills Post Office (2013–2025)
1. Market Activity: Active Listings & Closed Sales
- Active Listings fluctuated between 396 and 541, showing moderate inventory without extreme oversupply.
- Closed Sales peaked in 2021 (206 transactions), reflecting the nationwide housing boom fueled by ultra-low interest rates and pandemic-driven relocation.
- In contrast, 2025 fell to just 96 closed sales, marking a 53% decline from 2021 — a sign of slowed buyer absorption amidst higher mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
2. Closure Rate (Absorption)
- Early years (2013–2017) maintained 25–41% closure rates, indicating a relatively balanced market.
- The market surged in 2021 (40.9%), consistent with the COVID-era buying spree.
- However, 2025 shows a drop to 22.1%, one of the weakest absorption rates of the decade, suggesting more listings are lingering without selling.
3. Pricing Trends: Median List vs. Median Sold
- Median List Price rose from $2.0M in 2013 to $3.9M by 2022, reflecting steady luxury appreciation.
- Median Sold Price closely tracked list prices, often within 90–95%, but dipped in recent years as buyers negotiated harder:
- 2013–2019: Tight gap, sellers had pricing power.
- 2023–2025: Wider negotiation, with sold prices trailing lists by ~5–10%, showing buyer leverage.
4. Total Sold Volume
- Sales volume peaked in 2021 at $1.07B, driven by both high transaction counts and elevated prices.
- From 2021–2025, volume declined by nearly 48%, down to $558M, highlighting both fewer deals and more cautious high-end spending.
- Despite fewer transactions, volumes remain strong compared to early years due to higher per-home values.
5. Value Per Square Foot
- $/Sq.Ft. rose dramatically:
- 2013: $690/Sq.Ft.
- 2021: $1,519/Sq.Ft. (pandemic peak).
- 2025: $1,108/Sq.Ft. — a 27% correction from peak values.
- This indicates the market is adjusting, but not collapsing, as luxury buyers still support high price density.
6. Luxury Dynamics & Sale-to-List Ratios
- Sale-to-List Ratios consistently held between 84–96%.
- 2021 dropped sharply to 84.3%, even amid record activity — suggesting urgency to transact led sellers to accept discounts.
- By 2025, ratios stabilized around 88.8%, showing cautious negotiation but still maintaining market confidence.
What This Means
- 2013–2019: Stable luxury appreciation with consistent liquidity.
- 2020–2021: Pandemic-era surge — record sales, values, and turnover.
- 2022–2025: Correction phase — fewer sales, reduced absorption, softening $/Sq.Ft., but still historically elevated compared to 2013.
Bottom Line
Beverly Hills Post Office remains a premier luxury submarket. Despite declining absorption and transaction counts since 2021, pricing resilience shows long-term investor and homeowner confidence. Over the next cycle, we can expect stable-to-modest appreciation with slower velocity, as global economic headwinds and higher financing costs weigh on turnover, but international wealth continues to anchor values.
