Cheviot Hills Rancho Park

Encino: 3-Year Market Projection

2026

• Active Listings: Expected to hover around 680–700, reflecting a continuation of elevated inventory as more owners test the market.
• Closed Sales: Likely ~230–240, consistent with 2025 levels, showing limited absorption due to financing headwinds.
• Median Prices: Stabilization phase. List ~$2.6M–$2.7M, sold ~$2.2M–$2.3M.
• $/Sq.Ft.: Holds near ~$800–$820, with modest upward pressure from remodeled homes.
• Key Factor: Mortgage rates staying “higher for longer” keeps sales volume restrained, but cash-rich luxury buyers continue to prop up values.

2027

• Active Listings: Inventory begins moderating to 650–670, as discouraged sellers exit and only serious listings remain.
• Closed Sales: Modest recovery toward 250–260, reflecting improving absorption.
• Median Prices: Modest appreciation resumes. List ~$2.8M–$2.9M, sold ~$2.4M–$2.5M.
• $/Sq.Ft.: Pushes upward toward ~$850–$880 as turnkey and newer builds outperform.
• Key Factor: National inflation cooling and a stable equity market bring more confidence to buyers, leading to firmer contract activity.

2028

• Active Listings: Balances closer to 620–640, a healthier market level.
• Closed Sales: Climbs toward 270–280, approaching the stronger cycles seen pre-2019.
• Median Prices: Renewed upward momentum. List ~$3.0M–$3.1M, sold ~$2.6M–$2.7M.
• $/Sq.Ft.: Could test ~$900–$950, reflecting Encino’s continued repositioning as a core luxury market.
• Key Factor: With rates likely easing and global demand for LA luxury steady, Encino benefits from its larger homes and competitive value compared to Beverly Hills and Bel Air.

Summary Projection

• Short-term (2026): Stabilization with restrained closings but firm pricing.
• Mid-term (2027): Sales rebound modestly as economic clarity builds and financing stabilizes.
• Long-term (2028): Healthy appreciation resumes, with Encino regaining momentum and solidifying its status as a high-demand, lower-cost alternative to Westside luxury hubs.

Bottom Line: Encino is transitioning from its post-boom correction (2022–2025) into a gradual recovery (2026–2028). While transaction counts remain thinner than during the 2020–2021 surge, the neighborhood’s larger lot sizes, modern new builds, and relative affordability will sustain long-term appreciation.

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Encino Market Analysis: 2013–2025

2013–2015: Early Growth Phase

• Sales Volume & Pricing: In 2013, total sold volume was about $468M, with median sold prices around $870K. By 2015, sales volume had surged to $636M, and the median sold price rose to $1.15M, reflecting strong upward momentum.
• Closings: Closed sales steadily increased from 446 (2013) to 472 (2015).
• $/Sq.Ft.: Jumped from $394 (2013) to $461 (2015), a 17% gain in just two years.
• Trend: Encino was becoming more attractive to mid-to-upper tier buyers, with demand outpacing supply and driving consistent appreciation.

2016–2017: Peak Transaction Years

• Closings & Volume: 2016 and 2017 were high-water marks, with 477 and 483 closed sales, and volumes topping $716M and $823M, respectively.
• Pricing: Median sold prices climbed from $1.28M (2016) to $1.3M (2017).
• $/Sq.Ft.: Crossed into the $500s, reaching $517/Sq.Ft. in 2017.
• Market Dynamics: Despite heavy inventory (853–883 active listings), absorption remained strong, signaling peak demand prior to the 2020s.

2018–2019: Softening & Mixed Signals

• Closures & Volume: 2019 saw a drop to 338 closed sales, with total volume dipping to $628M, down from $823M in 2017.
• Median Pricing: Median sold slipped to $1.43M (2019) from the prior high of ~$1.65M in 2018.
• $/Sq.Ft.: Stabilized around $567, slightly softer compared to prior growth.
• Takeaway: Buyer caution emerged, reflecting affordability ceilings and early macroeconomic uncertainty.

2020–2021: Pandemic Boom

• Closures & Volume: Closings rebounded—327 (2020) to 397 (2021). Total sales volume exploded to $915M in 2021, the cycle’s peak.
• Pricing: Median sold prices soared to $1.85M (2021), nearly double 2013 levels.
• $/Sq.Ft.: Jumped to $688, confirming luxury absorption and historically low mortgage rates fueling bidding wars.
• Trend: 2021 was Encino’s “pandemic surge year,” with record-breaking prices and velocity.

2022–2025: Correction & Stabilization

• Closures & Volume: Closings dropped to 307 in 2022, then further down to 230 in 2025. Volume also contracted sharply from $823M (2022) to $610M (2025).
• Pricing: Median sold prices dipped slightly post-2021, from $2.2M (2022) to $2.13M (2025).
• $/Sq.Ft.: However, average $/Sq.Ft. kept climbing, peaking at $794 in 2025—showing fewer but higher-quality trades.
• Market Dynamics: Closure rates fell into the 33–40% range (2023–2025), highlighting buyer hesitancy, longer decision cycles, and higher interest rates. Still, pricing resilience suggests luxury demand held firm for top properties even as volume slowed.

Summary 2013–2025

• Growth: Encino evolved from a $870K median market in 2013 to a $2.1M+ median by 2025, with $/Sq.Ft. doubling from $394 → $794.
• Cycles:
• 2013–2017: Expansion and rising absorption.
• 2018–2019: Softening period with slower closings.
• 2020–2021: Pandemic boom with record prices.
• 2022–2025: Post-boom correction, fewer transactions, but pricing stability due to low inventory of desirable homes.
• Key Insight: Encino has transitioned into a true luxury submarket with global and domestic demand supporting long-term values, even as volume contracts under higher rate environments.