Hollywood Hills East

Hollywood Hills East: 3-Year Market Projection

2026

• Active Listings: Expected to hover around 290–310, reflecting continued turnover but no major inventory surge.
• Closed Sales: Likely around 90–100, stabilizing after 2025’s slowdown.
• Median Prices: Modest stability, list ~$1.82M–$1.85M, sold ~$1.80M–$1.83M.
• $/Sq.Ft.: ~$900–$920, slightly softer as buyers remain cautious.
• Key Factor: Elevated mortgage rates and economic uncertainty keep volume muted, but sellers resist deep discounts.

2027

• Active Listings: Expected to ease to 275–290, as only serious sellers stay on market.
• Closed Sales: Gradual rebound to 105–115, reflecting improved buyer absorption.
• Median Prices: Renewed traction, list ~$1.85M–$1.90M, sold ~$1.83M–$1.87M.
• $/Sq.Ft.: ~$925–$950, showing gentle appreciation as confidence returns.
• Key Factor: A shift in Federal Reserve policy or easing inflation may lower borrowing costs, reactivating demand.

2028

• Active Listings: Balanced around 265–280, aligning closer to mid-2010s levels.
• Closed Sales: Rebound to 120–130, approaching healthier turnover rates.
• Median Prices: Continued appreciation, list ~$1.90M–$1.95M, sold ~$1.87M–$1.92M.
• $/Sq.Ft.: ~$960–$990, approaching 2023’s peak values in a more sustainable manner.
• Key Factor: Global wealth inflows and Los Angeles’ enduring luxury appeal support long-term price resilience, despite slower transaction velocity.

Summary Projection

• Short-term (2026): Stabilization, with volumes near 2025 but no major price erosion.
• Mid-term (2027): Recovery phase begins, with stronger absorption and modest price gains.
• Long-term (2028): Market rebalances, sales activity normalizes, and $/Sq.Ft. values regain peak territory.

Bottom Line: Hollywood Hills East is emerging from its post-pandemic correction. While turnover remains slow in the near term, limited supply and luxury demand set the stage for renewed stability and moderate appreciation through 2028.

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Analysis of Hollywood Hills East (2013–2025)

1. Market Activity: Active Listings & Closed Sales

• Active Listings generally ranged between 278 and 338 during the mid-2010s, peaking in 2017 (338 listings).
• Closed Sales peaked in 2021 (212 transactions), fueled by record-low interest rates and pandemic-driven demand.
• By 2025, only 83 sales closed, down nearly 61% from 2021, highlighting severe buyer pullback and slower absorption.

2. Closure Rate (Absorption)

• 2013–2017 maintained 44–57% closure rates, showing steady demand relative to inventory.
• The market surged in 2021 (64.4%), its strongest absorption rate in over a decade.
• By 2025, closure rate fell to just 27.2%, one of the weakest points in the timeline, reflecting a buyer’s market where many homes linger unsold.

3. Pricing Trends: Median List vs. Median Sold

• Median List Price increased from $899K in 2013 to a peak of $1.90M in 2024 before flattening to $1.80M in 2025.
• Median Sold Price mirrored this trend, climbing from $975K in 2013 to $1.94M in 2024, then slipping slightly to $1.80M in 2025.
• Market phases:

• 2013–2019: Tight list-to-sold alignment, sellers retained leverage.
• 2020–2022: Sold prices exceeded list, confirming bidding wars.
• 2023–2025: Buyers regained leverage, sold prices flattened or trailed list prices.

4. Total Sold Volume

• Total sales volume peaked in 2021 at $417M, benefiting from both elevated prices and high transaction counts.
• By 2025, volume fell to $168M, down nearly 60% from peak, as sales activity slowed sharply despite elevated pricing.
• Compared to early years (~$190M in 2013–2015), volumes remain higher due to luxury appreciation, even with reduced transaction counts.

5. Value Per Square Foot

• Average $/Sq.Ft. nearly doubled over the cycle:

• 2013: $491/Sq.Ft.
• 2021: $844/Sq.Ft. (pandemic surge).
• 2023: $956/Sq.Ft. (peak density value).
• 2025: $909/Sq.Ft., showing a modest correction but no collapse.
  • This reflects resilient long-term demand, with buyers willing to pay higher per-foot premiums for hillside properties.

6. Luxury Dynamics & Sale-to-List Ratios

• Sale-to-List Ratios held steady at 98–99% for most of the cycle.
• 2020–2022 exceeded 100%, reflecting intense competition and bidding wars.
• By 2024–2025, ratios normalized to ~99%, confirming a shift back to buyer negotiation.

What This Means

• 2013–2019: Steady appreciation and consistent absorption — a balanced, healthy hillside submarket.
• 2020–2021: Unprecedented boom — record absorption, values, and velocity.
• 2022–2025: Correction phase — volumes and closure rates decline, $/Sq.Ft. softens, yet values remain far above early-decade levels.

Bottom Line

Hollywood Hills East remains a premium hillside market, shaped by its central location, luxury appeal, and limited land supply. While absorption and transaction counts have slowed dramatically since 2021, the neighborhood’s pricing resilience and long-term appreciation trajectory point to stability rather than collapse. Looking forward, modest appreciation is expected, but with slower turnover as higher financing costs and selective buyer demand temper market activity.