Malibu

• Some of the best views in Los Angeles
• Incredible beaches
• Surfing
• Wine tasting
• Nature and wildlife
• Safaris
• Restaurants 
• Shopping
• Horseback Riding
• Hotels

• Malibu High School – Public
• Point Dume Elementary School – Public
  
• Moreau Academy – Private
• Cabrillo Elementary School – Public
• Pepperdine University – Private
• Colin McEwein High School – Public
• The Sycamore School – Private
• McKinna Learning Center - Private
• Webster Elementary School – Public

Malibu: 3-Year Market Projection

2026

• Active Listings: Expected to remain elevated at 480–500, as many sellers test the market while demand stays selective.
• Closed Sales: Stabilize slightly to 70–80 transactions, a modest improvement from 2025’s historic low.
• Median Prices: Hold steady, list ~$4.6M–$4.7M, sold ~$4.35M–$4.45M.
• $/Sq.Ft.: ~$1,350–$1,400, reflecting stabilized buyer sentiment.
• Key Factor: Mortgage rates and global economic caution keep turnover muted, but trophy properties continue to command strong prices.

2027

• Active Listings: Gradual easing to 460–480, as unrealistic sellers withdraw.
• Closed Sales: Rebound to 90–100 transactions, signaling improving absorption.
• Median Prices: Modest appreciation, list ~$4.7M–$4.8M, sold ~$4.45M–$4.55M.
• $/Sq.Ft.: ~$1,400–$1,460, supported by demand for oceanfront and newly built luxury estates.
• Key Factor: Potential rate stabilization or cuts draw luxury buyers back, especially international capital seeking coastal safe havens.

2028

• Active Listings: Balance further at 440–460, in line with historic norms.
• Closed Sales: Improve to 110–120 transactions, approaching pre-pandemic averages.
• Median Prices: Renewed growth, list ~$4.8M–$5.0M, sold ~$4.6M–$4.75M.
• $/Sq.Ft.: ~$1,500–$1,580, regaining momentum toward 2023’s peak density.
• Key Factor: Malibu’s exclusivity, limited coastal land, and enduring global demand sustain long-term appreciation, even with slower turnover.

Summary Projection

• Short-term (2026): Market stabilizes after sharp contraction, with sales volume slightly better but prices flat.
• Mid-term (2027): Absorption improves, and prices edge upward with renewed demand.
• Long-term (2028): Malibu rebalances, sales activity approaches historic norms, and $/Sq.Ft. climbs back toward peak levels.

Bottom Line: Malibu is moving out of its 2022–2025 correction phase. While turnover will remain below the frenzied pace of 2020–2021, pricing stability, global prestige, and limited coastal supply ensure resilience and gradual recovery through 2028.

Analysis of Malibu (2013–2025)

1. Market Activity: Active Listings & Closed Sales

• Active Listings fluctuated between 474 and 601, peaking in 2018 (601) before contracting to 492 in 2025.
• Closed Sales peaked in 2021 with 224 transactions, fueled by the pandemic boom and migration into coastal luxury markets.
• By 2025, sales fell to just 59 transactions, down 74% from the peak, signaling a sharp slowdown in absorption.

2. Closure Rate (Absorption)

• 2013–2017: Malibu operated at 29–36% closure rates, reflecting a selective but steady luxury market.
• 2021: Surged to 47.3%, the strongest absorption of the cycle.
• 2025: Fell to just 12.0%, one of the weakest years in over a decade, showing buyers are highly cautious while sellers remain active.

3. Pricing Trends: Median List vs. Median Sold

• Median List Price rose from $1.9M (2013) to $4.6M (2025), more than doubling in 12 years.
• Median Sold Price tracked closely, moving from $1.85M (2013) to $4.35M (2025).
• Market Phases:

• 2013–2019: Tight alignment between list and sold, sellers held leverage.
• 2020–2022: Pandemic surge; sold prices nearly matched or exceeded list values.
• 2023–2025: Buyers reasserted leverage, with negotiation widening but pricing staying elevated.

4. Total Sold Volume

• Malibu posted $450M–$640M in annual volume from 2013–2017.
• 2021: Surged to $1.07B, an all-time high, as both pricing and sales volume spiked.
• 2025: Collapsed to $283M, down 74% from peak, reflecting fewer deals despite higher price tags.

5. Value Per Square Foot

• 2013: Averaged $721/Sq.Ft.
• 2021: Reached $1,313/Sq.Ft.
• 2023: Peaked at $1,949/Sq.Ft., showing Malibu’s desirability even as volumes slowed.
• 2025: Corrected to $1,399/Sq.Ft., still nearly double 2013 levels but down ~28% from peak.

6. Luxury Dynamics & Sale-to-List Ratios

• Sale-to-List Ratios consistently ran in the 92–95% range, reflecting negotiation in a discretionary luxury market.
• 2020–2022: Ratios tightened toward 95%, confirming strong competitive demand.
• 2025: At 93.5%, ratios show buyers are negotiating again but not securing deep discounts.

What This Means

• 2013–2019: Malibu enjoyed steady luxury appreciation with moderate liquidity.
• 2020–2021: Pandemic-era surge drove record sales, values, and turnover as coastal luxury became highly sought-after.
• 2022–2025: A correction — sales counts collapsed, $/Sq.Ft. retreated, and total sold volume fell, but values remain historically high compared to early years.

Bottom Line

Malibu remains one of the most prestigious global coastal luxury markets, supported by its unique geography, celebrity appeal, and limited supply. Despite declining absorption and turnover since 2021, pricing resilience signals long-term investor confidence. Looking ahead, expect slower turnover but stable-to-modest appreciation, with Malibu continuing to attract global wealth.