Malibu Beach: 3-Year Market Projection
1. Active Listings & Closed Sales
- Active Listings: Expected to remain elevated, hovering 210–230 annually, as sellers continue to test the market.
- Closed Sales: Likely to stay weak, 25–45 closings per year, given sharp declines in absorption.
Projection:
- 2026 → ~220 listings | ~35 sales | 15.9% closure rate
- 2027 → ~225 listings | ~40 sales | 17.8% closure rate
- 2028 → ~230 listings | ~45 sales | 19.6% closure rate
2. Closure Rate (Absorption)
- 2021–2022 highs (40–52%) are unlikely to return soon.
- Market will likely stabilize in the 15–20% absorption range, reflective of thin but steady ultra-luxury activity.
3. Pricing Trends
- Median List Price projected to hold $12M–$13.5M, as sellers anchor to pandemic-era highs.
- Median Sold Price expected to track slightly lower, $11M–$12.5M, reflecting buyer leverage.
- Wide negotiation gaps will persist, but trophy homes will command premiums.
4. Total Sold Volume
- With fewer closings, annual volume will remain muted compared to peaks.
- Expect $350M–$500M annually, well below the $800M+ highs of 2021–2022.
Projection:
- 2026 → ~$375M
- 2027 → ~$425M
- 2028 → ~$480M
5. Value Per Square Foot
- Stabilization around $3,200–$3,500/Sq.Ft., down from 2022’s record $3,874 but still ~50% above pre-2016 averages.
6. Sale-to-List Ratios
- Likely to remain in the 84–88% range, showing buyers retain strong leverage in negotiations.
Bottom Line
Malibu Beach is entering a low-volume, high-price equilibrium:
- Trophy estates will continue to transact at strong $/Sq.Ft. values.
- However, overall liquidity remains limited, with fewer than 1 in 5 listings closing.
- Investors should expect longer hold times and selective buyer pools, but continued price resilience supported by limited coastal supply and global demand.
Analysis of Malibu Beach (2013–2025)
1. Market Activity: Active Listings & Closed Sales
- Active Listings fluctuated between 156–214, peaking in 2020 (214) and 2025 (211).
- Closed Sales were consistently low relative to listings, ranging 26–81 annually.
- The strongest absorption was in 2021 (51.9% closure rate), when 81 homes closed.
- By 2025, closure rate collapsed to 12.3%, signaling severe demand weakness — fewer than 1 in 8 listings closed.
2. Closure Rate (Absorption)
- 2013–2016: Weak but stable absorption (~24–26%), with 44–51 closings per year.
- 2018–2020: Improved liquidity, peaking at 35.5% in 2020 as buyers sought trophy assets.
- 2021–2022: Historic highs — closure rate surged to 51.9% in 2021 and 39.4% in 2022.
- 2023–2025: Sharp deterioration — closure rate fell to 18.9% (2023), 18.5% (2024), and 12.3% (2025).
3. Pricing Trends: Median List vs. Median Sold
- 2013–2015: Median prices held in the $5M–$6.5M range.
- 2016: A spike — median list reached $8.5M, but sold median only $7.1M, showing buyer resistance.
- 2020–2022: Major appreciation — list medians reached $11.9M in 2021, and sold medians peaked at $10.2M in 2022.
- 2023–2025: Correction — by 2025, sold median rebounded to $12M, but with very few transactions, signaling only ultra-luxury deals closing.
4. Total Sold Volume
- 2013–2016: Steady annual volumes of ~$287M–$410M.
- 2018–2020: Expanded volumes, reaching $645M in 2020.
- 2021–2022: Historic peak — $837M in 2021 and $876M in 2022.
- 2023–2025: Volume collapsed — down to $403M in 2023, $573M in 2024, and only $342M in 2025, the weakest in over a decade.
5. Value Per Square Foot
- 2013–2016: Averaged ~$2,200–$2,700/Sq.Ft.
- 2018–2020: Climbed steadily, peaking near $3,100/Sq.Ft. in 2019–2020.
- 2021–2022: Record highs — $3,874/Sq.Ft. in 2022, fueled by bidding wars.
- 2023–2025: Correction phase — dropped to $3,095/Sq.Ft. (2023), stabilized around $3,300–$3,600/Sq.Ft. (2024–2025).
6. Sale-to-List Ratios
- 2013–2015: Discount-heavy, ratios in the 88–91% range.
- 2016–2022: Tightened to 92–96%, showing buyers paid near ask.
- 2021–2022: Strongest market, ~92–92.4% close to ask despite higher pricing.
- 2023–2025: Softening — 83.5% in 2025, the weakest, with sellers forced into steep discounts to close deals.
What This Means
- 2013–2016: Stable but soft market with modest sales and high time on market.
- 2017–2020: Acceleration in trophy home demand, culminating in pandemic-era flight-to-luxury (2020 surge).
- 2021–2022: Golden years — record absorption, volumes, and $/Sq.Ft. set Malibu Beach apart as one of the hottest coastal enclaves worldwide.
- 2023–2025: Sharp contraction — sales plunged, absorption collapsed, and discounts widened. Pricing remains high nominally, but liquidity has dried up.
Bottom Line
Malibu Beach has shifted from ultra-hot luxury liquidity (2021–22) to a thin, illiquid market (2023–25). Trophy homes can still fetch record $/Sq.Ft., but broader absorption is extremely weak.
